Phivolcs: ‘Big One’ more likely to happen as 2058 approaches

National

The “Big One” — a projected magnitude 7.2 earthquake linked to the West Valley Fault — is becoming statistically more likely as 2058 approaches, according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs).

Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol clarified, however, that this is not a prediction but part of the fault’s natural 400- to 600-year cycle.

In a Philstar report, Bacolcol explained that the last major movement occurred in 1658, placing the country within the expected timeframe for another large quake.

“As we get closer to 2058, the probability increases, but it doesn’t mean it will happen by that exact year,” he said in the report.

The West Valley Fault runs through Bulacan, Metro Manila, and Calabarzon, making it one of the Philippines’ most closely monitored fault systems.

Phivolcs continues to urge the public to strengthen buildings, prepare emergency kits, and know evacuation routes as part of long-term disaster readiness.

Bacolcol also clarified that the recent strong quakes in La Union, Zambales, Cebu, Surigao, and Davao are unrelated to the West Valley Fault, as they were caused by different fault systems.

He emphasized that frequent seismic activity is normal in the Philippines, which sits atop several active faults.

While scientists cannot predict exactly when a large quake will occur, Bacolcol said understanding recurrence intervals allows authorities and communities to plan effectively.(Xienderlyn Trinidad, USJ-R Comm Intern)