Asteroid 2024 YR4 unlikely to hit earth but may strike the moon

International

COULD the moon really get hit by an asteroid in 2032?

NASA has updated its forecast for asteroid 2024 YR4, reporting a small but increased chance of it striking the moon on December 22, 2032.

The possibility of an earth impact has been almost entirely ruled out, with the probability now at just 0.004 percent. However, the chance of a lunar collision has risen from 1.7 percent to 3.8 percent.

“There is still a 96.2 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon,” NASA said in a statement, emphasizing that even if it does hit, the impact would not alter the Moon’s orbit.

The new projections are based on refined data from several observatories, including the James Webb Space Telescope. Webb’s infrared imaging helped estimate the asteroid’s size to be between 53 and 67 meters, comparable to a 10-story building.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted in December from a telescope in the Chilean desert. Since then, many space objects have passed even closer to earth than the moon. Some were too small to be tracked or burned up in the atmosphere without notice.

While the moon’s surface bears the marks of past impacts from asteroids and comets, a new strike could offer scientists a rare chance to witness a real-time collision and study its effects.

“A great experiment and a perfect opportunity,” said Professor Mark Burchell, a space science expert at the University of Kent, in an interview with New Scientist.

NASA will continue monitoring the asteroid, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to observe it again next month.(MyTVCebu)